This week my piece on the coming Hungarian elections appeared on Mérce, one of the leading independent portals in the nation.
Short English Summary:
• Fidesz led by Viktor Orban will most probably receive the highest number of votes – still, the elections will have stakes, pretty high ones.
• The real question is, whether Orban’s victory will be enough for a 2/3 supermajority in the new Parliament (i.e. have enough seats to pass any kind of legislation, including amendments to the Constitution)
• If yes, Orban will set out to eliminate the last two major checks on his power dominance: the current system of municipalities and the still existing independence of the judicial system.
• On the other hand, a result short of the supermajority would send an important message to the following groups that Orban’s rule is not omnipotent. While some smart Fidesz-cronies will take this as a first sign, and start preparing to jump ship when things go south, young intellectuals (potential vanguard of any anti-Fidesz movement of the future) on the brink of leaving the country for good might see it as a sign of hope.
• A less favorable outcome (the last two elections both produced supermajorities for Fidesz) will also weaken Orban’s international position as the ideological leader of Europe’s rising illiberalism.
You may find the original Hungarian text here.